Trump is pushing a peace deal Israel doesn't want, Iran hasn't confirmed, and nobody can price correctly. That's exactly where the edge is.
Here's what's actually happening. Trump declared the deal "largely negotiated" - but Iran made zero public confirmation.
> Netanyahu's office has "serious concern and disappointment".
Israel is demanding full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program and removal of all enriched uranium before anything gets signed.
> The real negotiation isn't about peace. It's about the Strait of Hormuz.
One Israeli official called it "a weapon no less effective than nuclear weapons." Iran knows this. The US knows this.
Opening the Strait is Iran's leverage - and the price they're extracting for any agreement.
> Three scenarios right now:
Optimistic: deal signed in 1-3 days after political alignment. Hormuz opens partially. Oil risk drops.
Base case: 1-2 weeks of further negotiation. Partial framework, not permanent peace.
Breakdown: nuclear terms, sanctions, and Hormuz don't align. Talks collapse.
// I will use @CrispPredict for trading //
Permanent peace by May 31 is trading at 12 cents. By June 30 at 29 cents.
Someone is wrong about the timeline. Find the edge on -> http://app.crisp.trade/event/israel-x-ir...
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