{"id":"2058637001939714193","url":"https://x.com/Atenov_D/status/2058637001939714193","text":"Trump is pushing a peace deal Israel doesn't want, Iran hasn't confirmed, and nobody can price correctly. That's exactly where the edge is.\n\nHere's what's actually happening. Trump declared the deal \"largely negotiated\" - but Iran made zero public confirmation. \n\n> Netanyahu's office has \"serious concern and disappointment\". \nIsrael is demanding full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program and removal of all enriched uranium before anything gets signed.\n\n> The real negotiation isn't about peace. It's about the Strait of Hormuz.\n\nOne Israeli official called it \"a weapon no less effective than nuclear weapons.\" Iran knows this. The US knows this. \nOpening the Strait is Iran's leverage - and the price they're extracting for any agreement.\n\n> Three scenarios right now:\n\nOptimistic: deal signed in 1-3 days after political alignment. Hormuz opens partially. Oil risk drops.\n\nBase case: 1-2 weeks of further negotiation. Partial framework, not permanent peace.\n\nBreakdown: nuclear terms, sanctions, and Hormuz don't align. Talks collapse.\n\n// I will use @CrispPredict for trading //\n\nPermanent peace by May 31 is trading at 12 cents. By June 30 at 29 cents.\n\nSomeone is wrong about the timeline. Find the edge on -> http://app.crisp.trade/event/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by?ref=atenov_d","author":{"name":"Atenov int.","username":"Atenov_D","avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2018766680860606464/8Omnaqqn_200x200.jpg"},"createdAt":"Sun May 24 19:51:23 +0000 2026","engagement":{"replies":16,"retweets":3,"likes":92,"views":512943},"media":{"photos":[],"videos":[{"url":"https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2058636681872375809/vid/avc1/1920x1080/IvjTq9T_szDmmjj3.mp4?tag=27","thumbnailUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/amplify_video_thumb/2058636681872375809/img/zEn19n1438zFyCbU.jpg","width":1920,"height":1080,"duration":35.133}]},"quoteTweet":{"id":"2058529596723605723","url":"https://x.com/Atenov_D/status/2058529596723605723","text":"A quant called crypto \"the dumbest market in the world\" - then built a $500K+/year hedge fund on it with Sharpe ratios above 2.0 using basic trend following.\n\nScott Phillips launched Hyper Trend - a tokenized on-chain hedge fund on Hyperliquid. \n- His thesis: the competition in crypto isn't Renaissance Technologies. It's retail, cults, and VC exit liquidity.\n\n> Strategies TradFi arbitraged away in the 1990s still print money here. Because nobody sophisticated enough to close the gap is paying attention.\n\nyou will watch 90 minutes of the most credibility-forward breakdown of crypto edge on camera: why North Korean state actors and VCs are your best alpha source, how to exploit manipulated funding rates, and why the dark forest of DeFi rewards quants who understand microstructure\n\nBookmark & watch - then ask yourself why you're competing against Citadel in TradFi when this market exists.","author":{"name":"Atenov int.","username":"Atenov_D","avatarUrl":"https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2018766680860606464/8Omnaqqn_200x200.jpg"},"createdAt":"Sun May 24 12:44:36 +0000 2026"},"externalLink":{"url":"http://app.crisp.trade/event/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by?ref=atenov_d","displayUrl":"app.crisp.trade","title":"Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...? | Crisp","description":"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.\n\n- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.\n\nThe inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n","thumbnailUrl":"https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-S6NwYL3MbEka.jpg"},"adhxContext":{"savedByCount":1,"publicTags":[],"previewUrl":"https://adhx.com/Atenov_D/status/2058637001939714193"}}